Meiqiu Chena, Yanfei Lua, Lin Ling, Yun Wan, Zhijun Luo, Hongsheng Huang
College of Landscape and Art, Jiangxi Agricultural University
The Research Center on Rural Land Resources Use and Protection, Jiangxi Agriculture University
College of Information and Engineering, Jiangxi Agricultural University
Abstract: Land use change and land-cover can influence ecological functions and ecosystem services. Based on Xie’s coefficient of ecosystem service value, land use change in Ganjing upstream watershed from the year 1990 to 2010 and the ecosystem service value caused by the land use change were quantitatively analyzed. Based on the statistical data and relevant research results, a gray correlation degree analysis was done between ecosystem services value (ESV) and its seven potential impact factors, i.e. Grain for Green program, population, gross domestic product (GDP), urbanization level, investment in fixed assets, the proportion of secondary industry and tertiary industry proportion. The boosted regression tree method was used to identify the driving factors for the changes of ESV during 1990–2010, 1990–1995, 1995–2000, 2000–2005 and 2005–2010 periods. The results showed that: (1) all seven indexes can affect the changes of ESV in Ganjiang upstream watershed during the study periods, (2) during 1990–2010 and from 2000 to 2005, the Grain for Green program is the most important factor influencing the ESV. The proportions of tertiary industry and GDP are the main factors influencing the ESV, whereas from 2000 to 2005 the main influential factor is GDP.
摘要：土地利用变化和土地复盖可以影响生态功能和生态系统服务功能。以谢氏生态系统服务价值系数为基础，对1990—2010年赣江上游流域土地利用变化及土地利用变化引起的生态系统服务价值进行定量分析。在统计数据和相关研究成果的基础上，对生态系统服务价值( ESV )与其7个潜在影响因子，即退耕还林计划、人口、国内生产总值(GDP) 、城市化水平、固定资产投资、第二产业比重和第三产业比重进行了灰色关联度分析生态系统服务价值进行灰色关联度分析。退耕还林计划、人口、国内生产总值(GDP)、城市化水平、固定资产投资、第二产业比重和第三产业比重。采用改进的回归树方法确定1990-2010年、1990-1995年、1995-2000年、2000-2005年和2005-2010年期间ESV变化的驱动因素。结果表明：(1)研究期内7个指标均能影响赣江上游流域ESV的变化；(2)1990-2010年和2000-2005年，退耕还林工程是影响赣江上游流域ESV的最主要因素，第三产业比重和GDP是影响赣江上游流域ESV的主要因素，而2000-2005年影响赣江上游流域ESV的主要因素是GDP。
原文链接：https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0264837715001040?via%3Dihub
下载链接：
Drivers of changes in ecosystem service values in Ganjiang upstream watershed.pdf
